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New Technology Stock Market Indexes Contagion: A VAR-dccMVGARCH Approach

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Author Info
Ryan SULEIMANN (ECOLE NORMALE SUPERIEURE DE CACHAN)

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Abstract

The episodes of stock market crises in Europe and the U.S.A. since the year 2000,and the fragility of the New Technology sector after the explosion of the speculative bubble,have sparked the interest of researchers in understanding and in modeling this market’s high volatility to prevent against crises.The strong linkage of the American and European New Technology sectors has brought up the co-movement and the contagion hypothesis,especially after the fall in new technology stock prices in Europe following the explosion of the IT speculative bubble in the U.S.A.In this article,we attempt to show that the NASDAQ- 100 is a major origin for the shocks that the IT.CAC and the NEMAX undergo.We construct a VAR model with GARCH errors to show this linkage and we find that the NASDAQ-100 has a strong effect on the French IT.CAC;this approach is an original work on contagion in the case of stock market indexes.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0307003.

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Date of creation: 17 Jul 2003
Date of revision: 18 Jul 2003
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0307003

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Keywords: Conditional Variance Regime Changes New Technologies Contagion Volatility VAR Causality.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
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