Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy
AbstractThe Alberta government is heavily exposed to energy price volatility as it relies to a great extent on revenue derived from the production of oil and natural gas. Energy prices change substantially and unpredictably, causing large and uncertain movements in revenues. Adjusting to these movements typically involves economic, social and political costs. Alberta government revenues are considerably more volatile than the revenues of other provinces, but Alberta’s own-source revenues less royalty payments are of similar size and volatility as those of other provinces. Several methods to reduce the volatility of revenues are assessed. An often-suggested method, tax base diversification (for example, use of a retail sales tax), is shown to have a minor effect on overall revenue volatility since Alberta’s royalty revenues are such a large share of total own-source revenues. Revenue smoothing using futures and options markets can be expensive, is associated with significant political risks, and cannot eliminate all revenue volatility. The Canadian dollar tends to appreciate (depreciate) when energy prices rise (fall), so exchange rate movements have smoothed Alberta government revenues, although not by a large amount. A simulation using Alberta data shows that a revenue savings fund could significantly reduce revenue volatility. This type of fund leads to greater revenue stability because the revenue it contributes to the budget in any particular year is based on revenues averaged over prior years. Revenue uncertainty is also reduced with a savings fund since future revenue depends on known past contributions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2010_23.
Date of creation: 23 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Government revenue volatility; energy prices; tax base diversification; government savings fund.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
- H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2010-09-03 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-PBE-2010-09-03 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Powell, Andrew, 1989. "The Management of Risk in Developing Country Finance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 69-87, Winter.
- Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004.
"Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
- Christopher Ragan, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 05-34, Bank of Canada.
- Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2013.
"Macro-hedging for commodity exporters,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 105-116.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Olivier Jeanne & Damiano Sandri, 2009. "Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters," NBER Working Papers 15452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Damiano Sandri & Olivier Jeanne, 2009. "Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters," IMF Working Papers 09/229, International Monetary Fund.
- Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2009. "Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters," CEPR Discussion Papers 7513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Jeanne & Damiano Sandri & Eduardo Borensztein, 2010. "Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters," 2010 Meeting Papers 832, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008.
"Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?,"
2008 Meeting Papers
540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 10-07, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," NBER Working Papers 13901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers UWEC-2008-11-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2009.
- Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
- Michael Sturm & François Gurtner & Juan Gonzalez Alegre, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
- Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010.
"Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," Working Paper Series 0849, European Central Bank.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth," Working Papers 2008/04, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
- Rudolfs Bems & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2009.
"Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources,"
IMF Working Papers
09/33, International Monetary Fund.
- Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia van Hove).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.