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Macro-hedging for commodity exporters

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  • Borensztein, Eduardo
  • Jeanne, Olivier
  • Sandri, Damiano

Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to quantify the potential welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. We show that hedging enhances domestic welfare through two channels: first, by reducing export income volatility; and second, by reducing the country's need to hold precautionary reserves and improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income. Under plausible calibrations of the model, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 101 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 105-116

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:101:y:2013:i:c:p:105-116

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

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Keywords: Hedging; Commodity exports; Precautionary savings; International reserves; Futures; Options; Default;

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References

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  1. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
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  4. Marco E. Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism," 2008 Meeting Papers 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 2.
  6. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
  7. Arrau, Patricio & Claessens, Stijn, 1992. "Commodity stabilization funds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 835, The World Bank.
  8. Christopher D. Carroll, 2005. "The Method of Endogenous Gridpoints for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Paolo Mauro & Törbjörn I. Becker & Jonathan David Ostry & Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Country Insurance," IMF Occasional Papers 254, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-97, December.
  11. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, precautionary saving, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 121-139, September.
  12. Ricardo J. Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2003. "Hedging Sudden Stops and Precautionary Contractions," NBER Working Papers 9778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 78, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  14. Angus Deaton, 1989. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers 3196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Powell, Andrew, 1989. "The Management of Risk in Developing Country Finance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 69-87, Winter.
  16. Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Marco Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/146, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sévi, Benoît & Le Pen, Yannick, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11382, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Gondo, Rocío, 2014. "State Contingent Assets, Financial Crises and Pecuniary Externalities in Models with Collateral Constraints," Working Papers 2014-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Ton S. van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2012. "How to Spend a Windfall: Dealing with volatility and capital scarcity," OxCarre Working Papers 085, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  4. Massol, Olivier & Banal-Estañol, Albert, 2014. "Export diversification through resource-based industrialization: The case of natural gas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1067-1082.
  5. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2014. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," Working Papers 2014-1, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  6. Dobronogov, Anton & Keutiben, Octave, 2014. "Containing volatility : windfall revenues for resource-rich low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6956, The World Bank.
  7. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Revisiting the excess co-movements of commodity prices in a data-rich environment," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6800, Paris Dauphine University.
  8. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Energy Prices and Alberta Government Revenue Volatility," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 313, November.
  9. Issouf Samaké & Nicola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 12/112, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_23, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  11. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "Macro factors in oil futures returns," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 13-38.
  12. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
  14. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "The Volatility Trap," IMF Working Papers 12/134, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
  16. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2011. "The volatility trap: why do big savers invest relatively little?," MPRA Paper 31286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "Oil Exporters' Dilemma," IMF Working Papers 12/4, International Monetary Fund.

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