Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters

Contents:

Author Info

  • Borensztein, Eduardo
  • Jeanne, Olivier
  • Sandri, Damiano

Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. We show that the introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path. Second, by reducing the country's need to hold foreign assets as precautionary savings (or by improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income). Under plausibly calibrated parameters, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP7513.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7513.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7513

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: commodity exports; default; futures; hedging; international reserves; options; precautionary savings;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Angus Deaton, 1989. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers 3196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
  3. Pagano Patrizio & Pisani Massimiliano, 2009. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, June.
  4. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in sudden stop economies: an assessment of the new mercantilism," International Finance Discussion Papers 911, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2005. "The Method of Endogenous Gridpoints for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 2.
  7. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Marco Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/146, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Powell, Andrew, 1989. "The Management of Risk in Developing Country Finance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 69-87, Winter.
  10. Ricardo J. Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2003. "Hedging Sudden Stops and Precautionary Contractions," NBER Working Papers 9778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-97, December.
  12. Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 78, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  13. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, precautionary saving, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 121-139, September.
  14. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
  15. Paolo Mauro & Törbjörn I. Becker & Jonathan David Ostry & Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Country Insurance," IMF Occasional Papers 254, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Arrau, Patricio & Claessens, Stijn, 1992. "Commodity stabilization funds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 835, The World Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2011. "The volatility trap: why do big savers invest relatively little?," MPRA Paper 31286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_23, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  3. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
  4. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2014. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," Working Papers 2014-1, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  5. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "The Volatility Trap," IMF Working Papers 12/134, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Revisiting the excess co-movements of commodity prices in a data-rich environment," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6800, Paris Dauphine University.
  7. Rudolfs Bems & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2009. "Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources," IMF Working Papers 09/33, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "Oil Exporters' Dilemma," IMF Working Papers 12/4, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
  10. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Energy Prices and Alberta Government Revenue Volatility," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 313, November.
  12. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Macro factors in oil futures returns," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11663, Paris Dauphine University.
  13. Gondo, Rocío, 2014. "State Contingent Assets, Financial Crises and Pecuniary Externalities in Models with Collateral Constraints," Working Papers 2014-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  14. Massol, Olivier & Banal-Estañol, Albert, 2014. "Export diversification through resource-based industrialization: The case of natural gas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1067-1082.
  15. Dobronogov, Anton & Keutiben, Octave, 2014. "Containing volatility : windfall revenues for resource-rich low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6956, The World Bank.
  16. Ton S. van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2012. "How to Spend a Windfall: Dealing with volatility and capital scarcity," OxCarre Working Papers 085, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  17. Issouf Samaké & Nicola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 12/112, International Monetary Fund.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7513. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.