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Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices

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  • Pagano Patrizio

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Pisani Massimiliano

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper documents the existence of a significant forecast error on crude oil futures. We interpret it as a risk premium, which, in part, could have been explained by means of a real-time U.S. business cycle indicator, such as the degree of capacity utilization in manufacturing. This result is robust to the specification of the estimating equation and to the considered business cycle indicator. An out-of-the-sample prediction exercise reveals that futures adjusted to take into account this time-varying component produce significantly better forecasts than those of unadjusted futures, of futures adjusted for the average forecast error and of the random walk, particularly at horizons of more than 6 months.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 1-28

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:9:y:2009:i:1:n:24

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Cited by:
  1. Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2013. "Macro-hedging for commodity exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 105-116.
  2. Alessio Anzuini & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of precautionary demand for oil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 918, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Anzuini, Alessio & Lombardi, Marco J. & Pagano, Patrizio, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Working Paper Series 1232, European Central Bank.
  4. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Nixon, Dan & Smith, Tom, 2012. "What can the oil futures curve tell us about the outlook for oil prices?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(1), pages 39-47.
  6. Alessio Anzuini & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2007. "Oil supply news in a VAR: Information from financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 632, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Melolinna, Marko, 2011. "What explains risk premia in crude oil futures?," Research Discussion Papers 2/2011, Bank of Finland.

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