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Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters

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  • Eduardo Borensztein
  • Olivier Jeanne
  • Damiano Sandri

Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. We show that the introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path. Second, by reducing the country's need to hold foreign assets as precautionary savings (or by improving the country's ability to borrow against future export income). Under plausibly calibrated parameters, the second channel may lead to much larger welfare gains, amounting to several percentage points of annual consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15452.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Publication status: published as Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2013. "Macro-hedging for commodity exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 105-116.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15452

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References

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  1. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
  2. Arrau, Patricio & Claessens, Stijn, 1992. "Commodity stabilization funds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 835, The World Bank.
  3. Carroll, Christopher D., 2005. "The method of endogenous gridpoints for solving dynamic stochastic optimization problems," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Marco Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/146, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Arellano, Cristina, 2008. "Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies," MPRA Paper 7867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September.
  7. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 2.
  8. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-97, December.
  9. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh, 1992. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 92/72, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Paolo Mauro & Törbjörn I. Becker & Jonathan David Ostry & Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Country Insurance," IMF Occasional Papers 254, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2006. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 585, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Rodrigo O. Valdés & Eduardo Engel, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 00/118, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Ricardo J. Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2003. "Hedging Sudden Stops and Precautionary Contractions," NBER Working Papers 9778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
  15. Powell, Andrew, 1989. "The Management of Risk in Developing Country Finance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 69-87, Winter.
  16. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rudolfs Bems & Irineu E. Carvalho Filho, 2009. "Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources," IMF Working Papers 09/33, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Gondo, Rocío, 2014. "State Contingent Assets, Financial Crises and Pecuniary Externalities in Models with Collateral Constraints," Working Papers 2014-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "The Volatility Trap," IMF Working Papers 12/134, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Sévi, Benoît & Le Pen, Yannick, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11382, Paris Dauphine University.
  5. Issouf Samaké & Nicola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 12/112, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Ton S. van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2012. "How to Spend a Windfall: Dealing with volatility and capital scarcity," OxCarre Working Papers 085, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  7. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2014. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," Working Papers 2014-1, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  8. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Massol, Olivier & Banal-Estañol, Albert, 2014. "Export diversification through resource-based industrialization: The case of natural gas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1067-1082.
  10. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Energy Prices and Alberta Government Revenue Volatility," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 313, November.
  11. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "Macro factors in oil futures returns," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 13-38.
  12. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "Oil Exporters' Dilemma," IMF Working Papers 12/4, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_23, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  14. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2011. "The volatility trap: why do big savers invest relatively little?," MPRA Paper 31286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
  16. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Revisiting the excess co-movements of commodity prices in a data-rich environment," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6800, Paris Dauphine University.

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