The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline
AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. We find that while futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices, with the exception those in the natural gas markets at the 3-month horizon. Futures do not appear to well predict subsequent movements in energy commodity prices, although they slightly outperform time series models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11033.
Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
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