Optimal Test for Markov Switching GARCH Models
AbstractEmpirically, the sum of GARCH parameter estimates is found to be close to unity, suggesting that the conditional volatility of most stock return data are likely to follow an integrated GARCH (IGARCH) process. However, such an extremely high persistence in unconditional variance may be overstated because of neglected structural breaks or parameter changes. As a result it is important to distinguish between these two processes, one being a globally stationary process and the other being a nonstationary IGARCH process. Though there are a number of studies modelling asymmetry leverage effects and advancing a battery of specification tests, studies that directly propose specification tests against Markov switching (MS) GARCH models are almost nonexistent. This paper develops such tests against MS-GARCH processes, which is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the LR test. Furthermore, we consider the case in which the conditional variance follows an IGARCH process under the null whilst it is globally stationary under the alternative. Monte Carlo studies show that our proposed tests have a good finite sample performance. In an application to the weekly stock return data for five East Asian emerging markets, we find strong evidence in favor of MS-GARCH models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 12 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models with an application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 97(3), pages 239-270, July.
- Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010.
"Goodness-of-fit testing for regime-switching models,"
22871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2011. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models," MPRA Paper 32532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.