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The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in SVAR Models: A Graphical Modelling Approach

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  • Matteo Fragetta

    (University of Salerno)

  • Giovanni Melina

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

We apply graphical modelling theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches of which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions of graphical modelling is a data based tool. Our results are in line with Keynesian theoretical models, being also quantitatively similar to those obtained in the recent SVAR literature à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002), and contrast with neoclassical real business cycle predictions. Stability checks confirm that our findings are not driven by sample selection.

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File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/2010/PDFs/BWPEF1006.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 1006.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1006

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References

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  1. James D. Hamilton, 1985. "Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 97-116.
  2. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Discussion Paper 1999-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Les Oxley & Marco Reale & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson, 2008. "Constructing Structural VAR Models with Conditional Independence Graphs," Working Papers in Economics 08/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  5. Jordi Gali & David López-Salido & Javier Valles, 2004. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," International Finance Discussion Papers 805, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 0877, European Central Bank.
  7. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2004. "Fiscal policy in the aftermath of 9/11," Working Paper Series WP-04-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2005. "Measures of Per Capita Hours and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," NBER Working Papers 11694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Morten Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Deep Habits," NBER Working Papers 10261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. Linnemann, Ludger, 2006. "The Effect of Government Spending on Private Consumption: A Puzzle?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1715-1735, October.
  15. Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson & Marco Reale, 2008. "The sampling properties of conditional independence graphs for I(1) structural VAR models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 802-810, 09.
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Cited by:
  1. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships," IMF Working Papers 13/141, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Matteo Fragetta & Giovanni Melina, 2011. "Identification of Monetary Policy in SVAR Models: A Data-Oriented Perspective," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0811, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  3. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2013. "A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery," IMF Working Papers 13/17, International Monetary Fund.

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