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Time-varying beta risk of Pan-European industry portfolios: A comparison of alternative modeling techniques

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  • Sascha Mergner
  • Jan Bulla

Abstract

This paper investigates the time-varying behavior of systematic risk for 18 pan-European sectors. Using weekly data over the period 1987-2005, six different modeling techniques in addition to the standard constant coefficient model are employed: a bivariate t-GARCH(1,1) model, two Kalman filter (KF)-based approaches, a bivariate stochastic volatility model estimated via the efficient Monte Carlo likelihood technique as well as two Markov switching models. A comparison of ex-ante forecast performances of the different models indicate that the random walk process in connection with the KF is the preferred model to describe and forecast the time-varying behavior of sector betas in a European context.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 14 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 771-802

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:14:y:2008:i:8:p:771-802

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Related research

Keywords: time-varying beta risk; Kalman filter; bivariate t-GARCH; stochastic volatility; efficient Monte Carlo likelihood; Markov switching; European industry portfolios;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Li, Hong, 2013. "Integration versus segmentation in China's stock market: An analysis of time-varying beta risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-105.
  2. Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa & Nieto Domenech, Belén & Orbe Mandaluniz, Susan, 2011. "Time-Varying Beta Estimators in the Mexican Emerging Market," BILTOKI 2011-06, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
  3. Pop, Raluca Elena, 2012. "Herd behavior towards the market index: evidence from Romanian stock exchange," MPRA Paper 51595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Abu Taher Mollik & M. Khokan Bepari, 2010. "Instability of stock beta in Dhaka Stock Exchange, Bangladesh," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(10), pages 886-902, October.
  5. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka & Ivo Jansky, 2012. "Time-Varying Betas of Banking Sectors," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 485-504, December.
  6. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2008. "Dynamic betas for Canadian sector portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1110-1122, December.
  7. Seth Armitage & Janusz Brzeszczynski, 2011. "Heteroscedasticity and interval effects in estimating beta: UK evidence ," CFI Discussion Papers 1103, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.

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