This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Time-varying beta risk of Pan-European industry portfolios: A comparison of alternative modeling techniques

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Sascha Mergner
Jan Bulla

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper investigates the time-varying behavior of systematic risk for 18 pan-European sectors. Using weekly data over the period 1987-2005, six different modeling techniques in addition to the standard constant coefficient model are employed: a bivariate t-GARCH(1,1) model, two Kalman filter (KF)-based approaches, a bivariate stochastic volatility model estimated via the efficient Monte Carlo likelihood technique as well as two Markov switching models. A comparison of ex-ante forecast performances of the different models indicate that the random walk process in connection with the KF is the preferred model to describe and forecast the time-varying behavior of sector betas in a European context.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/13518470802173396&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 14 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 771-802
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:14:y:2008:i:8:p:771-802

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=100161

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/subscription.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: time-varying beta risk; Kalman filter; bivariate t-GARCH; stochastic volatility; efficient Monte Carlo likelihood; Markov switching; European industry portfolios;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Francis, Jack Clark, 1978. "Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 101-116, March. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998. "Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin (Ginger) Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/04, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lie, Frida & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2000. "Modelling the Equity Beta Risk of Australian Financial Sector Companies," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 301-11, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. " Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman & Borus Jungbacker, 2004. "Forecasting daily variability of the S\&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 342, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  15. Danielsson, Jon, 1994. "Stochastic volatility in asset prices estimation with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 375-400. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Sunder, Shyam, 1980. " Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 883-96, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Abell, John D. & Krueger, Thomas M., 1989. "Macroeconomic influences on beta," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 185-193, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  20. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Sandmann, Gleb & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1998. "Estimation of stochastic volatility models via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 271-301, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    Other versions:
  24. Laurent, Sebastien & Peters, Jean-Philippe, 2002. " G@RCH 2.2: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 447-85, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Collins, Daniel W & Ledolter, Johannes & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Some Further Evidence on the Stochastic Properties of Systematic Risk," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 425-48, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. repec:bla:jbfnac:v:27:y:2000:i:5&6:p:523-554 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Robert W. Faff & David Hillier & Joseph Hillier, 2000. "Time Varying Beta Risk: An Analysis of Alternative Modelling Techniques," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(5&6), pages 523-554. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-89, October.
    Other versions:
  33. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Authors can create their own profile with links to their works on the RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.