Time-varying Beta Risk of Pan-European Sectors: A Comparison of Alternative Modeling Techniques
AbstractThis paper investigates the time-varying behavior of systematic risk for eighteen pan-European industry portfolios. Using weekly data over the period 1987-2005, three different modeling techniques in addition to the standard constant coefficient model are employed: a bivariate t- GARCH(1,1) model, two Kalman filter based approaches as well as a bivariate stochastic volatility model estimated via the efficient Monte Carlo likelihood technique. A comparison of the different models' ex- ante forecast performances indicates that the random-walk process in connection with the Kalman filter is the preferred model to describe and forecast the time-varying behavior of sector betas in a European context.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0509024.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 21 Sep 2005
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Time-varying beta risk; Kalman filter; bivariate t-GARCH; stochastic volatility; efficient Monte Carlo likelihood; European industry portfolios;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-09-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2005-09-29 (European Economics)
- NEP-FIN-2005-09-29 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-09-29 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2005-09-29 (Forecasting)
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