Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Time-varying Beta Risk of Pan-European Industry Portfolios: A Comparison of Alternative Modeling Techniques

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sascha Mergner

    (AMB Generali Asset Managers)

  • Jan Bulla

    (Georg-August-University, Goettingen)

Abstract

This paper investigates the time-varying behavior of systematic risk for eighteen pan-European sectors. Using weekly data over the period 1987- 2005, four different modeling techniques in addition to the standard constant coefficient model are employed: a bivariate t-GARCH(1,1) model, two Kalman filter based approaches, a bivariate stochastic volatility model estimated via the efficient Monte Carlo likelihood technique as well as two Markov switching models. A comparison of the different models' ex-ante forecast performances indicates that the random walk process in connection with the Kalman filter is the preferred model to describe and forecast the time-varying behavior of sector betas in a European context. Remarkably, the Markov switching models yield a worse out-of-sample performance than standard OLS.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/fin/papers/0510/0510029.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0510029.

as in new window
Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 26 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0510029

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 44. Extension of an earlier paper by the first author ('Time-varying beta risk of pan-European sectors') that adds two Markov switching models to the analysis.
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Markov switching; Kalman filter; stochastic volatility; efficient Monte Carlo likelihood; bivariate t-GARCH; European industry portfolios; time-varying beta risk;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  2. Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998. "Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
  3. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  5. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 398-404, May.
  7. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
  8. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. " Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December.
  9. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
  10. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  11. Ho-Chuan Huang, 2000. "Tests of regimes - switching CAPM," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 573-578.
  12. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
  13. Danielsson, Jon, 1994. "Stochastic volatility in asset prices estimation with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 375-400.
  14. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265.
  15. Collins, Daniel W & Ledolter, Johannes & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Some Further Evidence on the Stochastic Properties of Systematic Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 425-48, July.
  16. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  17. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April.
  18. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Francis, Jack Clark, 1978. "Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 101-116, March.
  19. Lie, Frida & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2000. "Modelling the Equity Beta Risk of Australian Financial Sector Companies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 301-11, September.
  20. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  21. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
  22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  23. Sunder, Shyam, 1980. " Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 883-96, September.
  24. Abell, John D. & Krueger, Thomas M., 1989. "Macroeconomic influences on beta," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 185-193, May.
  25. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  26. K. Giannopoulos, 1995. "Estimating the time Varying Components of international stock markets' risk," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 129-164.
  27. Sandmann, Gleb & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1998. "Estimation of stochastic volatility models via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 271-301, September.
  28. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  29. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
  30. Laurent, Sebastien & Peters, Jean-Philippe, 2002. " G@RCH 2.2: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 447-85, July.
  31. repec:bla:jbfnac:v:27:y:2000:i:5&6:p:523-554 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
  33. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Robert W. Faff & David Hillier & Joseph Hillier, 2000. "Time Varying Beta Risk: An Analysis of Alternative Modelling Techniques," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5&6), pages 523-554.
  35. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. He, Zhongzhi (Lawrence) & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2008. "Dynamic betas for Canadian sector portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1110-1122, December.
  2. Abu Taher Mollik & M. Khokan Bepari, 2010. "Instability of stock beta in Dhaka Stock Exchange, Bangladesh," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(10), pages 886-902, October.
  3. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka & Ivo Jansky, 2012. "Time-Varying Betas of Banking Sectors," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(6), pages 485-504, December.
  4. Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa & Nieto Domenech, Belén & Orbe Mandaluniz, Susan, 2011. "Time-Varying Beta Estimators in the Mexican Emerging Market," BILTOKI 2011-06, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0510029

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.