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Deficit Spending in the Nazi Recovery, 1933-1938: A Critical Reassessment

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Albrecht Ritschl

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Abstract

This paper examines the effects of deficits spending and work-creation on the Nazi recovery. Although deficits were substantial and full employment was reached within four years, archival data on public deficits suggest that their fiscal impulse was too small to account for the speed of recovery. VAR forecasts of output using fiscal and monetary policy instruments also suggest only a minor role for active policy during the recovery. Nazi policies deliberately crowded out private demand to ensure high rates of rearmament. Military spending dominated civilian work-creation already in 1934. Investment in autobahn construction was minimal during the recovery and gained momentum only in 1936 when full employment was approaching. Continued fiscal and monetary expansion after that date may have prevented the economy from sliding back into recession. We find some effects of the Four Years Plan of late 1936, which boosted government spending further and tightened public control over the economy.

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Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW in its series IEW - Working Papers with number iewwp068.

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Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:068

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Related research
Keywords: Nazi recovery; deficit spending; work-creation; war preparation; VAR forecasts;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Garvy, George, 1975. "Keynes and the Economic Activists of Pre-Hitler Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 391-405, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "New Deal policies and the persistence of the Great Depression: a general equilibrium analysis," Working Papers 597, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Cohn, Raymond L., 1992. "Fiscal policy in Germany during the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 318-342, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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