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When do stock market booms occur? the macroeconomic and policy environments of 20th century booms

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • David C. Wheelock

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic conditions and policy environments under which stock market booms occurred among ten developed countries during the 20th Century. We find that booms tended to occur during periods of above-average growth of real output, and below-average and falling inflation. We also find that booms often ended within a few months of an increase in inflation and monetary policy tightening. The evidence suggests that booms reflect both real macroeconomic phenomena and monetary policy, as well as the extant regulatory environment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-051.

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Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-051

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Stock exchanges;

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References

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  1. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
  2. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset prices: a look back at past U.S. stock market booms," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 19-44.
  4. Larry Neal, 1998. "The financial crisis of 1825 and the restructuring of the British financial system," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 53-76.
  5. DeLong, J. Bradford & Eichengreen, Barry, 1991. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3b1108bj, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1998. "The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 353-402 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Eugene White & Frederic Mishkin, 2002. "U.S.Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 200208, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  8. Neal,Larry, 1994. "The Rise of Financial Capitalism," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521457385, December.
  9. Charles W. Calomiris & David C. Wheelock, 1997. "Was the Great Depression a Watershed for American Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," NBER Working Papers 7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.
  12. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Charles Calomiris, 2009. "Banking Crises and the Rules of the Game," NBER Working Papers 15403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2007. "Stock market booms and monetary policy in the twentieth century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 91-122.

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