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The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago

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Author Info

  • Lorde, Troy
  • Jackman, Mahalia
  • Thomas, Chrystol

Abstract

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology, this paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, we find that the price of oil is a major determinant of economic activity of the country. Our impulse response functions suggest that following a positive oil price shock, output falls within the first two years followed by positive and growing response. We also investigate the macroeconomic impact of oil price volatility. Results suggest that an unanticipated shock to oil price volatility brings about random swings in the macroeconomy; however, only government revenue and the price level exhibit significant responses. With regard to the magnitude of the responses, shocks to oil price volatility tend to yield smaller macroeconomic impacts in comparison to shocks to oil prices. Variance decompositions suggest that the price of oil is a major component of forecast variation for most macroeconomic variables. Finally, Granger-causality tests indicate causality from oil prices to output and oil prices to government revenue.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Pages: 2708-2716

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:7:p:2708-2716

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Related research

Keywords: Oil price fluctuations Innovation accounting Trinidad and Tobago;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aktas, Erkan & Özenç, Çiğdem & Arıca, Feyza, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 8658, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2010.
  2. Özlale, Ümit & Pekkurnaz, Didem, 2010. "Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4489-4496, August.
  3. Heinrich Blechinger, Philipp Friedrich & Shah, Kalim U., 2011. "A multi-criteria evaluation of policy instruments for climate change mitigation in the power generation sector of Trinidad and Tobago," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6331-6343, October.
  4. Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2010. "The relationship between energy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from 66 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3565-3574, November.
  5. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K. & Appiah, Michael Owusu, 2014. "Oil price fluctuation, volatility spillover and the Ghanaian equity market: Implication for portfolio management and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.
  6. Necibi, Thameur & Issaoui, Fakhri, 2013. "The impact of oil prices on economic activity in administrated price structure: the case of Tunisia," MPRA Paper 50420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway," MPRA Paper 24447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.

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