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Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Stability and Welfare in a Small Open Economy

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  • Deren Unalmis
  • Ibrahim Unalmis
  • Derya Filiz Unsal

Abstract

Since the beginning of 2000s the world economy has witnessed a substantial increase in oil prices, which is seen to be an important source of economic fluctuations, causing high inflation, unemployment and low or negative growth rates. Recent experience, however, has not validated this view. Despite rising oil prices, world output growth has been strong, and although inflation has recently been increasing, it is relatively much lower compared with the 1970s. This paper focuses on the causes of oil price increases and their macroeconomic effects. Different from most of the recent literature on the subject, which understands the price of oil to be an exogenous process, we model the price of oil endogenously within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework. Specifically, using a new Keynesian small open economy model, we analyse the e¤ects of an increase in the price of oil caused by an oil supply shock and an oil demand shock. Our results indicate that the effects of an oil demand shock and an oil supply shock on the small open economy are quite different. In addition, we investigate the sensitivity of the general equilibrium outcomes to the degrees of oil dependence and openness, as well as the strength of the response of monetary policy authority to the inflation. Finally, we evaluate the welfare implications of alternative monetary policy regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 0802.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0802

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Keywords: Oil price; small open economy; demand and supply shocks;

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Cited by:
  1. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & D. Filiz Unsal, 2009. "On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 09/285, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Anna Lipínska & Stephen Millard, 2012. "Tailwinds and Headwinds: How Does Growth in the BRICs Affect Inflation in the G-7?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 227-266, March.
  3. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2010. "On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations (Petrol Fiyatlarindaki Dalgalanmalarin Kaynaklari)," Working Papers 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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