The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis
AbstractTwo indicators are proposed: the fi rst is the probabilistic indicator of the acceleration cycle (IPCA – indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération), which aims to detect economic acceleration and deceleration phases. The second is the probabilistic industrial recession indicator (IPRI – indicateur probabiliste de récession industrielle), which aims to estimate the probability of a recession in the industrial sector.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Banque de France in its journal Quarterly selection of articles - bulletin de la Banque de France.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 13 (Autumn)
economic cycles; turning points; acceleration cycle; probabilistic indicators; Markov chain models.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Adanero-Donderis , M. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
- Jean-Philippe Cotis & Jonathan Coppel, 2005. "Business Cycle Dynamics in OECD Countries: Evidence, Causes and Policy Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002.
"Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
- Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers 222, Banque de France.
- Bellone, B. & Gautier, E. & Le Coent, S., 2005. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels?," Working papers 128, Banque de France.
- Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Stéphane GOUTTE & Benteng Zou, 2011. "Foreign exchange rates under Markov Regime switching model," CREA Discussion Paper Series 11-16, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
- Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie-Christine Petit-Djemad).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.