The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis
AbstractTwo indicators are proposed: the fi rst is the probabilistic indicator of the acceleration cycle (IPCA – indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération), which aims to detect economic acceleration and deceleration phases. The second is the probabilistic industrial recession indicator (IPRI – indicateur probabiliste de récession industrielle), which aims to estimate the probability of a recession in the industrial sector.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Banque de France in its journal Quarterly selection of articles - bulletin de la Banque de France.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 13 (Autumn)
economic cycles; turning points; acceleration cycle; probabilistic indicators; Markov chain models.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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