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The U.S. Divorce Rate: The 1960s Surge Versus Its Long-Run Determinants

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Author Info
Nunley, John
Zietz, Joachim

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Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of the U.S. divorce rate from 1929 to 2006, with particular emphasis on explaining its surge in the mid-1960s. The main finding is that the divorce rate and female labor-force participation, or equivalently female participation in higher education, are endogenous variables that are linked by a negative, long-run relationship. The availability of oral contraception shifted this negative relationship to a new, higher level of divorce rates during the late-1960s and early-1970s. The Vietnam War also contributed to the rise in the divorce rate at that time. The results are very robust to different estimation methodologies.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16317/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16317.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision: Dec 2008
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16317

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Related research
Keywords: divorce rate; female labor-force participation; female participation in higher education; oral contraceptives; unilateral divorce laws; Vietnam War;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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  1. Smith, Ian, 1997. "Explaining the Growth of Divorce in Great Britain," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(5), pages 519-44, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Betsey Stevenson & Justin Wolfers, 2007. "Marriage and Divorce: Changes and their Driving Forces," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 27-52, Spring.
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  3. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    Other versions:
  5. Becker, Gary S, 1973. "A Theory of Marriage: Part I," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 813-46, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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