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Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets

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Author Info
Albert Marcet ()
Andrew Scott

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Abstract

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policy operates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bond market. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits and then consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account for this behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal tax policy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, if governments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets), debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramsey behavior, US data conflicts.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 558.

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Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision: Jul 2003
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:558

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Related research
Keywords: Optimal fiscal policy; complete vs incomlete markets; tax smoothing; government debt; persistence of debt;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Christopher Sleet, 2004. "Optimal Taxation with Private Government Information," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(4), pages 1217-1239, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Scott, Andrew, 1999. "Does Tax Smoothing Imply Smooth Taxes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2172, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Emmanuel Farhi, 2007. "Capital Taxation and Ownership when Markets are Incomplete," NBER Working Papers 13390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Albert Marcet & Elisa Faraglia & Andrew Scott, 2007. "Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management in OECD Economies," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 729.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 1996. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Economics Working Papers 170, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah J, 1996. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 443-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1125, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Butkiewicz, James L., 1983. "The market value of outstanding government debt : Comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 373-379. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Scott, Andrew, 2007. "Optimal taxation and OECD labor taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 925-944, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 198-230, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Faraglia, Elisa & Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2008. "In Search of a Theory of Debt Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 6859, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  22. Arantza Gorostiaga, 2003. "Should Fiscal Policy be different in a Non-Competitive Framework?," DFAEII Working Papers 200228, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy With Noncontingent Debt And The Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Patrick de Fontenay & Huw Pill, 1995. "The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Public Debt Management," IMF Working Papers 95/21, International Monetary Fund.
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  28. Zhu, Xiaodong, 1992. "Optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 250-289, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2008. "Fiscal Policy over the Real Business Cycle: A Positive Theory," NBER Working Papers 14047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Albert Marcet & Elisa Faraglia & Andrew Scott, 2008. "In Search of a Theory of Debt Management," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 743.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Alexis Anagnostopoulos, 2004. "Consumption and Debt Dynamics with (Rarely Binding) Borrowing Constraints," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/34, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Arantza Gorostiaga, 2002. "Should Fiscal Policy Be Di.erent in a Non-Competitive Framework?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/11, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Fernando Martin, 2009. "A Positive Theory of Government Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 608-631, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Paul Hiebert & Massimo Rostagno & Javier J. Perez, 2002. "Debt reduction and automatic stabilisation," Working Paper Series 189, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Loukoianova, E. & Vahey, S.P. & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2002. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0235, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Michael Kumhof & Ricardo Nunes & Irina Yakadina, 2008. "Simple monetary rules under fiscal dominance," International Finance Discussion Papers 937, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 1996. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Economics Working Papers 170, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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