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Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?

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  • Sui Luo
  • Yu‐Fan Huang
  • Richard Startz

Abstract

Recessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as ‘L‐shaped’ or ‘U‐shaped’, with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U‐shaped recovery for postwar NBER recessions. Most earlier recessions were U‐shaped but more recent recessions have been L‐shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relatively well by durable consumption, investment, labour hours and employment. Posterior probabilities for the shape of recoveries for nondurable consumption and participation rate are less decisive. However, total factor productivity appears to recover rapidly after all recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:83:y:2021:i:5:p:1111-1129
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12439
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    Cited by:

    1. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Yonghong Ma & Huili Ni & Xiaomeng Yang & Lingkai Kong & Chunmei Liu, 2023. "Government subsidies and total factor productivity of enterprises: a life cycle perspective," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 153-188, April.
    3. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner & Daniel Rees, 2023. "The shape of business cycles: a cross-country analysis of Friedman s plucking theory," Papers 2306.01552, arXiv.org.
    4. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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