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Slow recoveries: A structural interpretation

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  • Jordi Galí

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  • Frank Smets
  • Rafael Wouters

Abstract

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries. We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí-Smets- Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1317.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1317

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

Related research

Keywords: jobless recoveries; U.S. business cycle; estimated DSGE models; Okun's law.;

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  1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabrandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 238, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2012.
  2. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Staff Report 409, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2012. "Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market During the Great Recession: Cross-Country Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 9167, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. John Fernald, 2014. "Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record," NBER Working Papers 18194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sandra Gomes & Nikolay Iskrev & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Working Papers w201307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2012. "Labor-market polarization over the business cycle," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  6. Albinowski, Maciej & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2013. "Distrust in the ECB – product of failed crisis prevention or of inappropriate cure?," MPRA Paper 48242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Sacht, Stephen, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy responses and welfare analysis within the highfrequency New-Keynesian framework," Economics Working Papers 2014-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  8. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013. "The Effect of Labor and Financial Frictions on Aggregate Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers 690, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Kevin x.d. Huang & Jie Chen & Zhe Li & Jianfei Sun, . "Financial Conditions and Slow Recoveries," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers vuecon-sub-14-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  10. Prieto, Esteban & Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Time variation in macro-financial linkages," Discussion Papers 13/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Deyuan Li & Hongyi Li & Sidney Resnick & Casper G. de Vries, 2013. "The Impact of Competition on Prices with Numerous Firms," Working Papers 13-07, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  12. Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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