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Slow recoveries: A structural interpretation

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  • Jordi Galí

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  • Frank Smets
  • Rafael Wouters

Abstract

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries. We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí-Smets- Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1317.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1317

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

Related research

Keywords: jobless recoveries; U.S. business cycle; estimated DSGE models; Okun's law.;

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  1. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 15801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-66, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2012. "Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market During the Great Recession: Cross-Country Evidence," Working Paper Series 264, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  2. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Paper 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Deyuan Li & Hongyi Li & Sidney Resnick & Casper G. de Vries, 2013. "The Impact of Competition on Prices with Numerous Firms," Working Papers 13-07, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  4. John Fernald, 2012. "Productivity and potential output before, during, and after the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2012-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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