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Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation

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  • Jordi Galí
  • Frank Smets
  • Rafael Wouters

Abstract

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries. We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí-Smets-Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18085.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Publication status: published as Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 9-30, December.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18085

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "Involuntary unemployment and the business cycle," CQER Working Paper 2010-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  3. Ellen R. McGrattan & Patrick J. Kehoe & V. V. Chari, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Working Papers 664, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
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Cited by:
  1. John Fernald, 2014. "Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2012. "Labor-market polarization over the business cycle," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Paper 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Luca Sala & Ulf Söderstrom & Antonella Trigari, 2012. "Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market during the Great Recession: Cross-Country Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 345-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Prieto, Esteban, 2013. "Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages," CEPR Discussion Papers 9436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Sandra Gomes & Nikolay Iskrev & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Working Papers w201307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  7. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Deyuan Li & Hongyi Li & Sidney Resnick & Casper G. de Vries, 2013. "The Impact of Competition on Prices with Numerous Firms," Working Papers 13-07, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  8. Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  9. Albinowski, Maciej & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2013. "Distrust in the ECB – product of failed crisis prevention or of inappropriate cure?," MPRA Paper 48242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Sacht, Stephen, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy responses and welfare analysis within the highfrequency New-Keynesian framework," Economics Working Papers 2014-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  11. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013. "The Effect of Labor and Financial Frictions on Aggregate Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers 690, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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