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Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation

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  • Galí, Jordi
  • Smets, Frank
  • Wouters, Rafael

Abstract

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries. We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí-Smets-Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8978.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8978

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Keywords: estimated DSGE models; Jobless recoveries; Okun's law; U.S. business cycle;

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2013. "Unemployment and business cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 1089, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "Involuntary unemployment and the business cycle," CQER Working Paper 2010-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-66, January.
  4. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
  5. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0722, European Central Bank.
  6. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Luca Sala & Ulf Söderström & Antonella Trigari, 2012. "Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market During the Great Recession: Cross-Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. repec:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-14-00004 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Prieto, Esteban & Eickmeier, Sandra & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Time variation in macro-financial linkages," Discussion Papers 13/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Fernald, John G., 2014. "Productivity and potential output before, during, and after the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2014-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Sacht, Stephen, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy responses and welfare analysis within the highfrequency New-Keynesian framework," Economics Working Papers 2014-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  6. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record," NBER Working Papers 18194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sandra Gomes & Nikolay Iskrev & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks: We got news!," Working Papers, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department w201307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  8. Albinowski, Maciej & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2013. "Distrust in the ECB – product of failed crisis prevention or of inappropriate cure?," MPRA Paper 48242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Francesco Zanetti & Haroon Mumtaz, 2013. "The Effect of Labor and Financial Frictions on Aggregate Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers 690, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Deyuan Li & Hongyi Li & Sidney Resnick & Casper G. de Vries, 2013. "The Impact of Competition on Prices with Numerous Firms," Working Papers 13-07, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  12. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2012. "Labor-market polarization over the business cycle," Public Policy Discussion Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 12-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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