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External shocks and macroeconomic responses in Nigeria: A global VAR approach

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  • Lukman Oyeyinka Oyelami
  • P.A. Olomola

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic responses of Nigerian economy to external shock between 1986 and 2014. Specifically, we examine the effect of oil price shocks and macroeconomic shocks from developed trading partners on Nigerian macroeconomic performances in order to establish pattern of reactions to these shocks in the country. We employ global vector autoregression (GVAR) comprising of the US, EU, China, Japan and Nigeria as the reference country. The adoption as of this method of estimation is necessitated by its capability to effectively model complex high-dimensional system and also offers adequate tools to deal with the curse of dimensionality that can arise from a study of this nature. Having critically examined the econometric properties of our GVAR model, the results from our estimation based on impulse response function show that oil price shocks have direct effect on real gross domestic product and exchange rate in Nigeria but variables like inflation and short-term interest rate do not show immediate response to the shocks. The results also indicate that macroeconomic variables such as short-term interest and inflation show immediate responses to shocks to counterpart variables in developed countries. Based on this, the study concludes that Nigerian economy is vulnerable to external shocks and such shocks are not limited to oil price shocks. Other form of shocks such as growth spillover and financial shocks from developed countries are also relevant in shaping the macroeconomic performances in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukman Oyeyinka Oyelami & P.A. Olomola, 2016. "External shocks and macroeconomic responses in Nigeria: A global VAR approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1239317-123, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:1239317
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2016.1239317
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    Cited by:

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    2. Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
    3. Terungwa Paul Joseph Jato, Ph.D & Joyce Mbakosun Ayaga, 2022. "External Economic Shocks and Monetary Policy Tools in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(7), pages 110-119, July.
    4. Oyelami, Lukman O. & Saibu, Olufemi M., 2021. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Covid-19 in a Small Open Economy: An Empirical Analysis of Nigeria," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(1), pages 113-122.
    5. S. S. Abere & T. O. Akinbobola, 2020. "External Shocks, Institutional Quality, and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    6. Umechukwu, Chisom & Olayungbo, D.O., 2022. "US oil supply shocks and economies of oil-exporting African countries: A GVAR-Oil Resource Analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka & Dauda Olalekan Yinusa, 2023. "External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(1), pages 132-153, January.
    8. Shakirudeen Taiwo & Josine Uwilingiye, 2023. "New evidence on sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub‐Saharan African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 181-197, June.
    9. D. O. Olayungbo & T. A. Ojeyinka, 2022. "Crude oil prices pass-through to retail petroleum product prices in Nigeria: evidence from hidden cointegration approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 951-972, May.

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