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External shocks and international inflation linkages: a global VAR analysis

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  • Galesi, Alessandro
  • Lombardi, Marco J.

Abstract

Amid the recent commodity price gyrations, policy makers have become increasingly concerned in assessing to what extent oil and food price shocks transmit to the inflationary outlook and the real economy. In this paper, we try to tackle this issue by means of a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. We first examine the short-run inflationary effects of oil and food price shocks on a given set of countries. Secondly, we assess the importance of inflation linkages among countries, by dis-entangling the geographical sources of inflationary pressures for each region. Generalized impulse response functions reveal that the direct inflationary effects of oil price shocks affect mostly developed countries while less sizeable effects are observed for emerging economies. Food price increases also have significative inflationary direct effects, but especially for emerging economies. Moreover, significant second-round effects are observed in some countries. Generalized forecast error variance decompositions indicate that considerable linkages through which inflationary pressures spill over exist among regions. In addition, a considerable part of the observed headline inflation rises is attributable to foreign sources for the vast majority of the regions. JEL Classification: C32, E31

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1062.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091062

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Keywords: commodity prices; Global VAR; inflation; oil shock; second-round effects;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 121, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  2. Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, 2010. "Key Elements of Global Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Lance Kent, 2014. "Linkages, Transmission, and the Evolution of International Business Cycles," Working Papers 149, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  4. Yan Sun & Frigyes F Heinz & Giang Ho, 2013. "Cross-Country Linkages in Europe," IMF Working Papers 13/194, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "The impact of economic shocks in the rest of the world on South Africa: Evidence from a global VAR," Working Papers 201328, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  8. Jonas Dovern & Björn van Roye, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 4807, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Al-Shawarby, Sherine & Selim, Hoda, 2012. "Are international food price spikes the source of Egypt's high inflation ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6177, The World Bank.

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