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Are there really bubbles in oil prices?

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  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin
  • Yetkiner, Hakan

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify bubbles in oil prices by using the “exponential fitting” methodology proposed by Watanabe et al. (2007) [28,29]. We use the daily US dollar closing crude oil prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) covering the 1986:01:02–2013:07:09 and the Brent for the 1987:05:20–2013:07:09 periods. The distinguishing feature of this study from the previous studies is that this is the first study in the literature showing the existence of bubbles in crude oil prices. We found that there are four distinct periods of persistent bubbles in the crude oil prices since 1986. Two of these persistent bubbles are before 2000 and two of them are after 2000. We conclude that further research is needed to understand better how futures markets may impact the oil price formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "Are there really bubbles in oil prices?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 631-638.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:416:y:2014:i:c:p:631-638
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.020
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    Cited by:

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    3. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
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    5. Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
    6. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi Wei & Khurshid, Adnan, 2022. "Do booms and busts identify bubbles in energy prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Zhenhua Liu & Zhihua Ding & Tao Lv & Jy S. Wu & Wei Qiang, 2019. "Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 207-225, January.
    8. Potrykus, Marcin, 2023. "Investing in wine, precious metals and G-7 stock markets – A co-occurrence analysis for price bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Zhang, Yali & Wang, Jun, 2019. "Linkage influence of energy market on financial market by multiscale complexity synchronization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 254-266.
    10. García-Carranco, Sergio M. & Bory-Reyes, Juan & Balankin, Alexander S., 2016. "The crude oil price bubbling and universal scaling dynamics of price volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 60-68.
    11. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    12. Potrykus, Marcin, 2022. "Diamond investments – Is the market free from multiple price bubbles?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Detection of bubbles in WTI, brent, and Dubai oil prices: A novel double recursive algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Potrykus, Marcin, 2023. "Price bubbles in commodity market – A single time series and panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 110-117.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Bedriye Tunçsiper & Huseyin Ozdemir & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2020. "On the nexus among carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in G-7 countries: new insights from the historical decomposition approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 8097-8134, December.
    16. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jing, 2015. "Exploring the WTI crude oil price bubble process using the Markov regime switching model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 377-387.
    17. Kübra Akyol Özcan, 2023. "Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    18. Haykir, Ozkan & Yagli, Ibrahim & Aktekin Gok, Emine Dilara & Budak, Hilal, 2022. "Oil price explosivity and stock return: Do sector and firm size matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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