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Construction of Composite Business Cycle Indicators in a Sparse Data Environment

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  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

Business cycle indicators are important instruments for monitoring economic development. When employing indicators one usually relies on a sound statistical database. This paper deals with indicator development in a sparse data situation. Indicator building is merged with temporal disaggregation, which is often used by statistical offices. The discussed tools are applied in a case study for Abu Dhabi. Because the economy of Abu Dhabi is very dependent on oil, real income reflects the economic situation better than real gross domestic product (GDP). For this reason a measure of real gross domestic income (GDI) was chosen as reference series.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3557.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3557

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Related research

Keywords: business cycle indicators; temporal disaggregation; terms of trade; oil-producing countries;

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  2. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  4. Kohli, Ulrich, 2004. "Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 83-106, January.
  5. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2009. "Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 1135, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2010.
  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
  8. Schumacher, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2000. "Realeinkommen im neuen Europäischen System Volkswirtschaftlicher Gesamtrechnungen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(04), pages 07-13, 02.
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