Which is the best model for the US inflation rate : a structural changes model or a long memory process ?
AbstractThis paper analyzes the dynamics of the US inflation series using two classes of models : structural changes models and Long memory processes. For the first class, we use the Markov Switching (MS-AR) model of Hamilton (1989) and the Structural Change (SCH-AR) model using the sequential method proposed by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). For the second class, we use the ARFIMA process developed by Granger and Joyeux (1980). Moreover, we investigate whether the observed long memory behavior is a true behavior or a spurious behavior created by the presence of breaks in time series. Our empirical results provide evidence for changes in mean, breaks dates coincide exactly with some economic and financial events such Vietnam War and the two oil price shocks. Moreover, we show that the observed long memory behavior is spurious and is due to the presence of breaks in data set.
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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Structural breaks models; long range dependance; inflation series.;
Other versions of this item:
- Charfeddine Lanouar & Guégan Dominique, 2011. "Which is the Best Model for the US Inflation Rate: A Structural Change Model or a Long Memory Process?," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 5-25, January.
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- Dominique Guegan & Philippe De Peretti, 2012. "An Omnibus Test to Detect Time-Heterogeneity in Time Series," Working Papers halshs-00721327, HAL.
- Dominique Guégan & Philippe Peretti, 2013. "An omnibus test to detect time-heterogeneity in time series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1225-1239, June.
- Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Breaks or long memory behaviour : an empirical investigation," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00722032, HAL.
- Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Breaks or long memory behaviour : an empirical investigation," Working Papers halshs-00722032, HAL.
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