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An omnibus test to detect time-heterogeneity in time series

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  • Dominique Guégan

    ()

  • Philippe Peretti

    ()

Abstract

This paper focuses on a procedure to test for structural changes in the first two moments of a time series, when no information about the process driving the breaks is available. We model the series as a finite-order auto-regressive process plus an orthogonal Bernstein polynomial to capture heterogeneity. Testing for the null of time-invariance is then achieved by testing the order of the polynomial, using either an information criterion, or a restriction test. The procedure is an omnibus test in the sense that it covers both the pure discrete structural changes and some continuous changes models. To some extent, our paper can be seen as an extension of Heracleous et al. (Econom Rev 27:363–384, 2008 ). Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00180-012-0356-7
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Computational Statistics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 1225-1239

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Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:28:y:2013:i:3:p:1225-1239

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Related research

Keywords: Structural changes; Bernstein polynomial; Time-homogeneity;

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References

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  1. Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004. "Non-stationarities in stock returns," Econometrics 0411016, EconWPA.
  2. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January.
  3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  4. Vinod, H. D., 2004. "Ranking mutual funds using unconventional utility theory and stochastic dominance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 353-377, June.
  5. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
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  7. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Andreas Koutris & Maria Heracleous & Aris Spanos, 2008. "Testing for Nonstationarity Using Maximum Entropy Resampling: A Misspecification Testing Perspective," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-6), pages 363-384.
  10. Engle, Robert F & Smith, Aaron, 1998. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt99v0s0zx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  11. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  12. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
  13. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  14. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
  15. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00188309 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Charfeddine Lanouar & Guégan Dominique, 2011. "Which is the Best Model for the US Inflation Rate: A Structural Change Model or a Long Memory Process?," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 5-25, January.
  17. Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guégan, 2007. "Which is the best model for the US inflation rate : a structural changes model or a long memory," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07061, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
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