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Stochastic Permanent Breaks

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Author Info
Robert F. Engle
Aaron D. Smith

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Abstract

This paper bridges the gap between processes where shocks are permanent and those with transitory shocks by formulating a process in which the long-run impact of each innovation is time-varying and stochastic. In the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) process, frequent transitory shocks are supplemented by occasional permanent shifts. Consistency and asymptotic normality of quasi-maximum-likelihood estimates is established, and locally best hypothesis tests of the null of a random walk are developed. The model is applied to relative prices of pairs of stocks and significant test statistics result. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 553-574
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:4:p:553-574

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  1. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:353-67 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Stengos, Thanasis & Panas, E, 1992. "Testing the Efficiency of the Athens Stock Exchange: Some Results from the Banking Sector," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 239-52.
  3. Schoenberg, Ronald, 1997. "Constrained Maximum Likelihood," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 251-66, August. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  7. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:2:p:347-58 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L & Pentecost, Eric J, 1994. "Stock Market Efficiency, the Small Firm Effect and Cointegration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 405-11, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cerchi, Marlene & Havenner, Arthur, 1988. "Cointegration and stock prices : The random walk on wall street revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 333-346. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Mutiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-65, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pierre Perron & Zhongjun Qu, 2006. "An Analytical Evaluation of the Log-periodogram Estimate in the Presence of Level Shifts and its Implications for Stock Returns Volatility," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-016, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional root model," Economics Papers 2002-W7, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 01 Feb 2002. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wei Liu & Alex Maynard, 2007. "A New Application of Exact Nonparametric Methods to Long-Horizon Predictability Tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1376-1376. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we define the concept of long memory ? An econometric survey," Pre- and Post-Print documents halshs-00179343_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  8. N. Hyung & P.H.B.F. Franses, 2001. "Structural breaks and long memory in US inflation rates," Econometric Institute Report 221, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-14, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  11. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Simple (but effective) tests of long memory versus structural breaks," Working Papers 1101, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Siem Jan Koopman & Charles S. Bos, 2002. "Time Series Models with a Common Stochastic Variance for Analysing Economic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-113/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gary Biglaiser & Ching-to Albert Ma, 2006. "Moonlighting: Public Service and Private Practice," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-015, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. N. Hyung & P.F. Franses, 2002. "Inflation rates," Econometric Institute Report 261, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  15. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Norman Swanson, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 200422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  18. González Gómez, Andrés, 2004. "A smooth permanent surge process," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 572, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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