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Stochastic Permanent Breaks

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Author Info
Robert F. Engle
Aaron D. Smith

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Abstract

This paper bridges the gap between processes where shocks are permanent and those with transitory shocks by formulating a process in which the long-run impact of each innovation is time-varying and stochastic. In the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) process, frequent transitory shocks are supplemented by occasional permanent shifts. Consistency and asymptotic normality of quasi-maximum-likelihood estimates is established, and locally best hypothesis tests of the null of a random walk are developed. The model is applied to relative prices of pairs of stocks and significant test statistics result. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 553-574
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:4:p:553-574

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  1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
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  2. de Jong, Robert M., 1997. "Central Limit Theorems for Dependent Heterogeneous Random Variables," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 353-367, June. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:353-67 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Stengos, Thanasis & Panas, E, 1992. "Testing the Efficiency of the Athens Stock Exchange: Some Results from the Banking Sector," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 239-52.
  5. Schoenberg, Ronald, 1997. "Constrained Maximum Likelihood," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 251-66, August. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  9. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:2:p:347-58 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997. "An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. de Jong, R.M., 1995. "Laws of Large Numbers for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 347-358, February. [Downloadable!]
  12. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L & Pentecost, Eric J, 1994. "Stock Market Efficiency, the Small Firm Effect and Cointegration," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 405-11, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cerchi, Marlene & Havenner, Arthur, 1988. "Cointegration and stock prices : The random walk on wall street revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 333-346. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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