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Breaks or long memory behaviour : An empirical investigation

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Author Info
Lanouar Charfeddine () (OEP - Université de Marne-la-Vallée)
Dominique Guegan () (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics)

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Abstract

Are structural breaks models true switching models or long memory processes ? The answer to this question remain ambiguous. A lot of papers, in recent years, have dealt with this problem. For instance, Diebold and Inoue (2001) and Granger and Hyung (2004) show, under specific conditions, that switching models and long memory processes can be easily confused. In this paper, using several generating models like the mean-plus-noise model, the STOchastic Permanent BREAK model, the Markov switching model, the TAR model, the sign model and the Structural CHange model (SCH) and several estimation techiques like the GPH technique, the Exact Local Whittle (ELW) and the Wavelet methods, we show that, if the answer is quite simple in some cases, it can be mitigate in other cases. Using French and American inflation rates, we show that these series cannot be characterized by the same class of models. The main result of this study suggests that estimating the long memory parameter without taking account existence of breaks in the data sets may lead to misspecification and to overestimate the true parameter.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 09022.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:09022

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Web page: http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/
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Related research
Keywords: Structural breaks models; Spurious long memory behavior; inflation series.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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  1. Dominique Guégan, 2009. "A Meta-Distribution for Non-Stationary Samples," CREATES Research Papers 2009-24, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.


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