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Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options

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  • Driessen, Joost
  • Perotti, Enrico

Abstract

We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied volatility in excess of actual volatility. This volatility wedge should gradually decrease as confidence grows over time as convergence policy is maintained, and the risk of a reversal is progressively resolved. Empirically, we indeed find a positive volatility wedge which declines over time only for currencies involved in the Euro convergence process. The wedge and other convergence risk measures are correlated with both exogenous fundamentals and proxies for policy commitment uncertainty. We also find that the wedge responds to policy shocks in an asymmetric fashion, suggesting that policy risk is resolved at different rates after negative and positive shocks. Finally, we estimate a regime-switching model of convergence uncertainty, using data on interest rates, currency rates, and currency option prices. The results confirm the time-varying and asymmetric nature of convergence risk, and indicate that investors demand a risk premium for convergence risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 474-491

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:3:p:474-491

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Convergence risk Confidence building Currency options Regime switching models;

References

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  1. Cherian, Joseph A & Perotti, Enrico C, 1999. "Option Pricing and Foreign Investment under Political Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 2327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Enrico C. Perotti & Luc Laeven & Pieter van Oijen, 2000. "Confidence Building in Emerging Stock Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 366, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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  10. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Campa, Jose M. & Chang, P. H. Kevin & Reider, Robert L., 1998. "Implied exchange rate distributions: evidence from OTC option markets1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-160, February.
  12. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
  13. Bernardino Adao & Jorge Barros Luis, 2000. "Interest rate spreads implicit in options: Spain and Italy against Germany," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 155-161.
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