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Confidence Building in Emerging Stock Markets

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  • Laeven, Luc
  • Perotti, Enrico C

Abstract

Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sustained privatization and liberalization programmes represent a major test of political commitment to safer private property rights. We investigate whether successful privatization has a significant effect on emerging stock market development through the resolution of policy risk, i.e. the risk of ex post policy changes with redistributive impact on investment returns. The evidence from our panel study suggests that progress in privatization gradually leads to increased confidence. Moreover, increased confidence has a strong effect on local market development and is a significant determinant of excess returns. We conclude that financial liberalization and the resolution of policy risk resulting from successful privatization has been an important source for the broadening and deepening of emerging stock markets.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3055.

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Date of creation: Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3055

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Keywords: emerging market; financial integration; liberalization; political risk; privatization; stock market development;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rodolfo Martell & Ren� M. Stulz, 2003. "Equity-Market Liberalizations as Country IPO's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 97-101, May.
  2. Vaaler, Paul M. & Schrage, Burkhard N., 2007. "Residual State Factors, Policy Stability and Financial Performance Following Strategic Decisions by Privatizing Telecoms," Working Papers 07-0102, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
  3. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico C, 2004. "Confidence Building on Euro Conversion: Theory and Evidence from Currency Options," CEPR Discussion Papers 4180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Perotti, Enrico, 2004. "State ownership - a residual role?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3407, The World Bank.
  5. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico, 2011. "Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 474-491, April.
  6. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Norbert Funke, 2003. "Stock market liberalizations: Financial and macroeconomic implications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 730-761, December.
  7. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.

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