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Financial Markets' Assessment of EMU

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David S. Bates
Abstract

This article reviews the assumptions and methodologies underlying EMU probability calculators,' which infer from financial data the probability of specific countries joining the European Monetary Union. Some historical evidence is presented in support of the expectations hypothesis for intra-European interest rate differentials underlying most calculators, while various potential biases are deemed negligible. The various EMU calculators differ primarily in their scenarios for intra-European interest rate differentials conditional upon EMU not occurring. This article also discusses what can be inferred from financial data regarding future policies of the European Central Bank.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6874.

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Date of creation: Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6874

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F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bean, Charles R, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 31-52, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1997. "Exchange rate regimes and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," BIS Working Papers 43, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Scott, Louis O., 1987. "Option Pricing when the Variance Changes Randomly: Theory, Estimation, and an Application," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(04), pages 419-438, December. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. John H. Cochrane & Jesus Saa-Requejo, 1996. "Beyond Arbitrage: "Good-Deal" Asset Price Bounds in Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 5489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  14. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. JosÈ B. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "ERM bandwidths for EMU and after: evidence from foreign exchange options," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 53-89, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gabriel Fagan & Vítor Gaspar, 2007. "Adjusting to the euro," Working Paper Series 716, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2004. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/11, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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