A Convergence Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
AbstractThis paper develops a convergence model of the term structure of interest rates in the context of entering the EMU. Compared with the other models developed so far in this field, our model specification ensures convergence of the domestic short-term interest rates to the euro area ones. We achieve this convergence by stating that the spread between the domestic and euro short-term interest rates follows the Brownian bridge process. We also develop an econometric counterpart of the theoretical model. To address the problem of nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the model, the extended Kalman filter for coefficient estimation is applied.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2009/01.
Date of creation: 09 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
term structure of interest rates; the Brownian bridge; the EMU; nonlinear Kalman filter;
Other versions of this item:
- Viktors Ajevskis & Kristine Vitola, 2010. "A Convergence Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 727-747.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-02-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-02-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-02-28 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-02-28 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Tabellini, Guido, 1997.
"Extracting Information from Asset Prices: The Methodology of EMU Calculators,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
- Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Fabrizio Iacone & Guido Tabellini, . "Extracting Information from Asset Prices: the Methodology of EMU Calculators," Working Papers 113, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- David S. Bates, 1999. "Financial Markets' Assessment of EMU," NBER Working Papers 6874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
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