The Volatility Of The Won-Dollar Exchange Rate During The 2008-9 Crisis
AbstractThis paper estimates the volatility of the won-dollar exchange rate during the 2008-9 crisis. We find that the volatility increased in September 2008 and decreased in May 2009. The volatility rose gradually for one month and subdued in a similar manner, which implies that the volatility was not governed by any specific event or government policy. The overall changes in the volatility are similar to the movements of the CDS premium. We also find that the UK foreign exchange market experienced a similar pattern of volatility shifts and suffered smaller but longer volatility than the Korean one. The volatility shifts are estimated using a Markov switching GARCH model and a Bayesian method is suggested.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics in its journal Journal Of Economic Development.
Volume (Year): 37 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Bayesian Inference; Markov Switching GARCH Models; Exchange Rate Volatility; Credit Crisis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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