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Does Exchange Rate Risk Matter for Welfare?

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  • Paul R. Bergin
  • Ivan Tchakarov

Abstract

Volatility in exchange rates is a prominent feature of open economies, a fact which has motivated elaborate attempts in many countries at exchange rate management. This paper analyzes quantitatively the welfare effects of exchange rate risk in a general two-country environment. It finds that the effects of uncertainty tend to be small for the types of simplified cases considered in past literature. But it identifies other cases, not considered previously, in which these effects can be significantly larger. These include habit persistence, where agents are more sensitive to risk, and also incomplete asset market structures which allow for asymmetries between countries. The latter case suggests that countries which are hosts to an international reserve currency, such as the U.S. or members of the euro zone, may accrue

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9900.

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Date of creation: Aug 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9900

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
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  17. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ko, Kwan Wai, 2008. "Financial integration, information and communication technology, and macroeconomic volatility: Evidence from ten Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 124-144, June.
  2. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Ramsey Monetary Policy and International Relative Prices," Working Papers 254, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Mark Crosby & Timothy Kam & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "How Costly is Exchange Rate Stabilisation for an Inflation Targeter? The Case of Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(266), pages 354-365, 09.
  4. Robert Kollmann, 2004. "Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union: The Role of Trade Openness," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 289-301, 04/05.
  5. Christopher A. Sims & Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim, 2004. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solution of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 411, Econometric Society.
  6. Juillard, Michel & Karam, Philippe & Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2006. "Welfare-based monetary policy rules in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy," Working Paper Series 0613, European Central Bank.
  7. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Automatic Stabilizer Feature of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets," Working papers 2006-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2008.
  8. Matthias Paustian, 2005. "The role of contracting schemes for the welfare costs of nominal rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 196, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Paul Bergin, 2004. "Measuring the costs of exchange rate volatility," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug20.
  10. Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Ernst Schaumburg & Christopher A. Sims, 2003. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solutions of Discrete Time," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000284, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.
  12. Elekdag, Selim & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2007. "Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3986-4015, December.
  13. Straub, Roland & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2004. "Non-fundamental exchange rate volatility and welfare," Working Paper Series 0328, European Central Bank.

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