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The economic effects of oil prices shocks on the UK manufacturing and services sector

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  • Guidi, Francesco

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between changes in oil prices and the UK’s manufacturing and services sector performances. Only a few studies have been conducted at the sector level: the goal of this paper is to contribute in that direction. After presenting review of existing literature about oil effects on the UK’s sectors of manufacturing and services, an econometric analysis is carried out. In a more detailed analysis, three sets of vector autoregressive (VAR) models are employed using linear and non-linear oil price specifications among several key macroeconomic variables. From the linear oil price specification VAR model, the impulse response function reveals that oil price movement causes positive effects in both the output of manufacturing and services sectors. The variance decomposition shows that oil prices are quite important as a cause of the variance of the UK services sector output, while they do not have such a large role in the variance of the UK’s manufacturing output. From the asymmetric specification, it has been found that positive oil price changes determine a consistent contraction in manufacturing output, while the services sector does not seem to be affected by increases. Alternatively, negative oil price changes, show that manufacturing output does not increase so much despite a decrease in oil prices. The services sector is much more affected by oil prices decreases than increases. Finally considering the net oil price increase (NOPI) specification, it has been found that the manufacturing sector is much more affected by oil price changes than the services sector.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16171.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16171

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Keywords: Oil shock; VAR; impulse response function; variance decomposition;

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Cited by:
  1. Stephen J. Knop & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2014-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  3. Maria-Dolores, Ramon & José Rodolfo, Morales, 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: An Analysis of the Dutch Case based on Sectoral Economies of Scale," UMUFAE Economics Working Papers, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia 26673, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia.
  4. Yýlmaz BAYAR & Cuneyt KILIC, 2014. "Effects of Oil and Natural Gas Prices on Industrial Production in the Eurozone Member Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 238-247.

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