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Value-at-risk in a market subject to regime switching

Author

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  • Ryohei Kawata
  • Masaaki Kijima

Abstract

Many empirical researches report that value-at-risk (VaR) measures understate the actual 1% quantile, while for Inui, K., Kijima, M. and Kitano, A., VaR is subject to a significant positive bias. Stat. Probab. Lett., 2005, 72, 299-311. proved that VaR measures overstate significantly when historical simulation VaR is applied to fat-tail distributions. This paper resolves the puzzle by developing a regime switching model to estimate portfolio VaR. It is shown that our model is able to correct the underestimation problem of risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryohei Kawata & Masaaki Kijima, 2007. "Value-at-risk in a market subject to regime switching," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 609-619.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:7:y:2007:i:6:p:609-619
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680601161795
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wentao Hu, 2019. "calculation worst-case Value-at-Risk prediction using empirical data under model uncertainty," Papers 1908.00982, arXiv.org.
    2. Robert Elliott & Hong Miao, 2009. "VaR and expected shortfall: a non-normal regime switching framework," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 747-755.
    3. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
    4. Mark J. Flannery & Paul Glasserman & David K.A. Mordecai & Cliff Rossi, 2012. "Forging Best Practices in Risk Management," Working Papers 12-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    5. Alessandro Ramponi, 2012. "Computing Quantiles in Regime-Switching Jump-Diffusions with Application to Optimal Risk Management: a Fourier Transform Approach," Papers 1207.6759, arXiv.org.
    6. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Beuermann, Diether & Bernales, Alejandro, 2013. "Risk Management with Thinly Traded Securities: Methodology and Implementation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4647, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Henryk Gurgul & Artur Machno, 2014. "The optimal portfolio under VaR and ES," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 24(2), pages 59-79.
    8. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.

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