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Explosive Target balances of the German Bundesbank

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  • Potrafke, Niklas
  • Reischmann, Markus

Abstract

Using the recursive unit root test by Phillips et al. (2011) we show that the Target balances of the German Bundesbank have been explosive from the beginning of 2009 to the beginning of 2013. By implementing a full-allotment policy and reducing the required minimum quality of collaterals in October 2008, the European Central Bank (ECB) refinanced credits in the GIIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) to a large extent. Private capital flowed out of the GIIPS countries, and the German Target claims increased significantly. Using the new test to identify multiple explosive periods by Phillips et al. (2013) we find that the German Target claims also became explosive in autumn 2007 when the interbank market broke down for the first time.

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  • Potrafke, Niklas & Reischmann, Markus, 2014. "Explosive Target balances of the German Bundesbank," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 439-444.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:439-444
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Sinn Hans-Werner, 2019. "Der Streit um die Targetsalden : Kommentar zu Martin Hellwigs Artikel „Target-Falle oder Empörungsfalle?“," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 170-217, September.
    2. Kruse, Robinson & Kaufmann, Hendrik & Wegener, Christoph, 2018. "Bias-corrected estimation for speculative bubbles in stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 354-364.
    3. Wolfgang Nagl & Michael Weber, 2014. "Unemployment compensation and unemployment duration before and after the German Hartz IV reform," ifo Working Paper Series 186, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    5. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    6. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2016. "How to Handle the Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economics Experts," CESifo Working Paper Series 5860, CESifo.
    7. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2014. "The German Bundesbank's Target Claims: a Time Series Analysis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(14), pages 31-34, July.
    8. Nicole Storp & Tobias Kordsmeyer, 2019. "Time series analysis of the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Target claims and possible connections to the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(06), pages 26-28, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurosystem; Target; Recursive unit root test; Explosiveness; Hidden debt; German Bundesbank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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