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Measuring Global Economic Activity

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  • James D. Hamilton

Abstract

A number of economic studies have used a proxy for world real economic activity derived from shipping costs. This measure turns out to depend on a normalization that has substantive consequences of which users of the index had been unaware prior to this paper. This paper further evaluates this and alternative measures in terms of treatment of trends, coherence with world output, and ability to predict commodity prices. I conclude that measures derived from world industrial production offer a better indicator of global real economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Measuring Global Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 25778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25778
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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