IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v32y2008i6p1732-1753.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Misperception-driven chaos: Theory and policy implications

Author

Listed:
  • Yokoo, Masanori
  • Ishida, Junichiro

Abstract

In a large economy, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to immediately grasp the state of our surrounding environment with precision since we normally have access only to a subset of relevant information. In this paper, we introduce this information imperfection into an ordinary model of endogenous business cycles and examine how it would affect the dynamic nature of the model. We, in particular, present a mechanism by which observation errors result in chaotic fluctuations in a model that would behave regularly otherwise, thereby indicating the importance of potential misperception about the current state in a qualitative sense. Also, our model is tractable enough to explicitly derive a policy index of chaotic fluctuations under some conditions. This feature of the model allows us to draw some policy implications regarding the observability of macroeconomic state variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Yokoo, Masanori & Ishida, Junichiro, 2008. "Misperception-driven chaos: Theory and policy implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1732-1753, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:1732-1753
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(07)00161-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matsumoto, Akio, 2005. "Density function of piecewise linear transformation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 631-653, April.
    2. Day, Richard H. & Pianigiani, Giulio, 1991. "Statistical dynamics and economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 37-83, July.
    3. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
    4. Matsumoto, Akio, 2001. "Can inventory chaos be welfare improving," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 31-43, May.
    5. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
    6. Kazuo Nishimura & Makoto Yano, 2012. "Non-linear Dynamics and Chaos in Optimal Growth: An Example," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 127-150, Springer.
    7. Steven N. Durlauf, 1993. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 349-366.
    8. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    9. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January.
    10. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    12. Hess, Gregory D. & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 535-554, December.
    13. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    14. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    15. Douglas Gale, 1996. "Delay and Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(2), pages 169-198.
    16. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Bohm, Volker & Kaas, Leo, 2000. "Differential savings, factor shares, and endogenous growth cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 965-980, June.
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    19. Day, Richard H. & Pianigiani, Giulio, 1991. "Statistical Dynamics and Economics," Working Paper Series 293, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    20. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
    21. Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Aloisio P. Araujo, 2000. "Ergodic chaos, learning and sunspot equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(1), pages 163-184.
    22. Huang, Weihong, 2005. "On the statistical dynamics of economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 543-565, April.
    23. Anjan Mukherji, 1999. "A simple example of complex dynamics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 14(3), pages 741-749.
    24. Ishida, Junichiro & Yokoo, Masanori, 2004. "Threshold nonlinearities and asymmetric endogenous business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 175-189, June.
    25. Onozaki, Tamotsu & Sieg, Gernot & Yokoo, Masanori, 2003. "Stability, chaos and multiple attractors: a single agent makes a difference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1917-1938, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomes, Orlando, 2013. "Information stickiness on general equilibrium and endogenous cycles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-43.
    2. Takao Asano & Masanori Yokoo, 2017. "Chaotic Dynamics of a Piecewise Linear Model of Credit Cycles with Imperfect Observability," KIER Working Papers 967, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Asano, Takao & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "Chaotic dynamics of a piecewise linear model of credit cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 9-21.
    4. Umezuki, Yosuke & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "A simple model of growth cycles with technology choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 164-175.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asano, Takao & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "Chaotic dynamics of a piecewise linear model of credit cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 9-21.
    2. Ishida, Junichiro & Yokoo, Masanori, 2004. "Threshold nonlinearities and asymmetric endogenous business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 175-189, June.
    3. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, November.
    4. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2013. "Time-varying beta: a boundedly rational equilibrium approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 609-639, July.
    6. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
    7. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vošvrda, Miloslav S., 2016. "Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework," FinMaP-Working Papers 68, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    8. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2013. "Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: The impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5920-5938.
    9. Hommes, C.H. & Huang, H. & Wang, D., 2002. "A Robust Rational Route to in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    10. Kai Li, 2014. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Time Delays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2014.
    11. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 377-404, September.
    12. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
    13. Kai Li, 2014. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Time Delays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 13, July-Dece.
    14. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, January.
    15. Takao Asano & Masanori Yokoo, 2017. "Chaotic Dynamics of a Piecewise Linear Model of Credit Cycles with Imperfect Observability," KIER Working Papers 967, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
    17. Serena Brianzoni & Roy Cerqueti & Elisabetta Michetti, 2010. "A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 165-188, February.
    18. Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2019. "Dynamic Predictor Selection And Order Splitting In A Limit Order Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1757-1792, July.
    19. Gomes, Orlando, 2013. "Information stickiness on general equilibrium and endogenous cycles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-43.
    20. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle & Dany Lang, 2019. "Is the market really a good teacher?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 299-335, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:1732-1753. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.