Modeling Online Browsing and Path Analysis Using Clickstream Data
AbstractClickstream data provide information about the sequence of pages or the path viewed by users as they navigate a website. We show how path information can be categorized and modeled using a dynamic multinomial probit model of Web browsing. We estimate this model using data from a major online bookseller. Our results show that the memory component of the model is crucial in accurately predicting a path. In comparison, traditional multinomial probit and first-order Markov models predict paths poorly. These results suggest that paths may reflect a user's goals, which could be helpful in predicting future movements at a website. One potential application of our model is to predict purchase conversion. We find that after only six viewings purchasers can be predicted with more than 40% accuracy, which is much better than the benchmark 7% purchase conversion prediction rate made without path information. This technique could be used to personalize Web designs and product offerings based upon a user's path.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.
Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
personalization; multinomial probit model; hierarchical Bayes models; hidden Markov chain models; vector autoregressive models;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Sam Hui & Eric Bradlow, 2012. "Bayesian multi-resolution spatial analysis with applications to marketing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 419-452, December.
- Cecere, Grazia & Le Guel, Fabrice & Soulié, Nicolas, 2012. "Perceived Internet privacy concerns on social network in Europe," MPRA Paper 41437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- G. Verstraeten & D. Van Den Poel, 2006. "Using Predicted Outcome Stratified Sampling to Reduce the Variability in Predictive Performance of a One-Shot Train-and-Test Split for Individual Customer Predictions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/360, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- J. Burez & D. Van Den Poel, 2008. "Handling class imbalance in customer churn prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/517, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Garrow, Laurie A. & Hotle, Susan & Mumbower, Stacey, 2012. "Assessment of product debundling trends in the US airline industry: Customer service and public policy implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 255-268.
- Hui, Kai-Lung & Png, Ivan P. L., 2005.
"The Economics of Privacy,"
- J. Burez & D. Van Den Poel, 2005. "CRM at a Pay-TV Company: Using Analytical Models to Reduce Customer Attrition by Targeted Marketing for Subscription Services," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/348, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Oliver Rutz & Randolph Bucklin, 2012. "Does banner advertising affect browsing for brands? clickstream choice model says yes, for some," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 231-257, June.
- Benjamin Reed Shiller, 2013. "First Degree Price Discrimination Using Big Data," Working Papers 58, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Sep 2013.
- Prasad Naik & Michel Wedel & Lynd Bacon & Anand Bodapati & Eric Bradlow & Wagner Kamakura & Jeffrey Kreulen & Peter Lenk & David Madigan & Alan Montgomery, 2008. "Challenges and opportunities in high-dimensional choice data analyses," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 201-213, December.
- Bauer, Hans H. & Falk, Tomas & Hammerschmidt, Maik, 2006. "eTransQual: A transaction process-based approach for capturing service quality in online shopping," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 866-875, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.