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Three decades of financial sector risk

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Author Info
Joel F. Houston
Kevin J. Stiroh

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Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of risk in the U.S. financial sector using firm-level equity market data from 1975 to 2005. Over this period, financial sector volatility has steadily increased, reaching extraordinary levels from 1998 to 2002. Much of this recent turbulence can be attributed to a series of major financial shocks, and we find evidence of an upward trend in volatility only for the common component that affects the entire financial sector. While idiosyncratic volatility remains dominant, a combination of common shocks, deregulation, and diversification has reduced its relative importance since the early 1990s. Within the financial sector, commercial banks show the largest rise in volatility, which also reflects industry shocks and not the idiosyncratic component. Despite these changes, we find that the links between the financial sector and economic activity have declined in recent years. These results have implications for investors, bank regulators, and other policymakers concerned with the origins of financial sector risk and with the links between the financial markets and real activity.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 248.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:248

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Related research
Keywords: Risk ; Financial markets ; Banks and banking;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Berger, Allen N. & Demsetz, Rebecca S. & Strahan, Philip E., 1999. "The consolidation of the financial services industry: Causes, consequences, and implications for the future," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 135-194, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2007. "Estimating systemic risk in the international financial system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 835-869, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper de Vries, 2005. "Banking system stability - a cross-Atlantic perspective," Working Paper Series 527, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Donald Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1555-1584, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mark Carey & Rene M. Stulz, 2005. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 11442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Carey, Mark & Stulz, Rene M., 2005. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," Working Paper Series 2005-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-2), pages 205-248. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gianni De Nicoló & Alexander F. Tieman, 2007. "Economic Integration and Financial Stability: A European Perspective," IMF Working Papers 06/296, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nicolas Pellerin, 2008. "L'effet des activités hors bilan sur la rentabilité et la volatilité des revenus des banques canadiennes," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp032008, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Visible and hidden risk factors for banks," Staff Reports 252, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dick Wensveen, 2008. "Notes And Communications," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 307-338, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "The Impact of Banking Deregulation on Canadian Banks Returns," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp022009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2008. "Banking Deregulation and Financial Stability : is it Time to re-regulate in Canada ?," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp042008, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kevin Stiroh, 2006. "New Evidence on the Determinants of Bank Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 237-263, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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