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Systemic Risk in European Banking : Evidence from Bivariate GARCH Models

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Author Info
Schüler , Martin
Schröder, Michael
Abstract

This paper attempts to assess the Europe-wide systemic risk in banking. We employ a bivariate GARCH model to estimate conditional correlations between European bank stock indices. These correlations are used as an indication for the interdependencies amongst the banking business in Europe and hence for the systemic risk potential. We employ several tests to assess the development of systemic risk: a non-parametric test of constancy of the correlation, a test of parallel shifts in the correlation at pre-specified events, and a test for a linear time trend in the correlations. The results show that many of the conditional correlations exhibit an upward move in the last years. This is an indication that the economic factors determining the European banking business have become more similar and that the systemic risk potential has increased. --

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 03-11.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:956

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Related research
Keywords: systemic risk; banking; contagion; Europe; bivariate GARCH;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  5. C. Hafner, . "Fourth moments of multivariate GARCH processes," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-80, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  14. Aharony, Joseph & Saunders, Anthony & Swary, Ithzak, 1986. "The effects of a shift in monetary policy regime on the profitability and risk of commercial banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 363-377, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Craig Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 313-328.
  20. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Schüler , Martin, 2003. "How Do Banking Supervisors Deal with Europe-wide Systemic Risk?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-03, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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