Systemic Risk in European Banking: Evidence from Bivariate GARCH Models
AbstractThis paper attempts to assess the Europe-wide systemic risk in banking. We employ a bivariate GARCH model to estimate conditional correlations between European bank stock indices. These correlations are used as an indication for the interdependencies amongst the banking business in Europe and hence for the systemic risk potential. We employ several tests to assess the development of systemic risk: a non-parametric test of constancy of the correlation, a test of parallel shifts in the correlation at pre-specified events, and a test for a linear time trend in the correlations. The results show that many of the conditional correlations exhibit an upward move in the last years. This is an indication that the economic factors determining the European banking business have become more similar and that the systemic risk potential has increased. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 03-11.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
systemic risk; banking; contagion; Europe; bivariate GARCH;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
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