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Systemic Risk in European Banking: Evidence from Bivariate GARCH Models

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  • Schüler, Martin
  • Schröder, Michael

Abstract

This paper attempts to assess the Europe-wide systemic risk in banking. We employ a bivariate GARCH model to estimate conditional correlations between European bank stock indices. These correlations are used as an indication for the interdependencies amongst the banking business in Europe and hence for the systemic risk potential. We employ several tests to assess the development of systemic risk: a non-parametric test of constancy of the correlation, a test of parallel shifts in the correlation at pre-specified events, and a test for a linear time trend in the correlations. The results show that many of the conditional correlations exhibit an upward move in the last years. This is an indication that the economic factors determining the European banking business have become more similar and that the systemic risk potential has increased. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 03-11.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:956

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Keywords: systemic risk; banking; contagion; Europe; bivariate GARCH;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
  2. Schüler, Martin, 2003. "How Do Banking Supervisors Deal with Europe-wide Systemic Risk?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-03, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Schüler, Martin, 2003. "Incentive Problems in Banking Supervision: The European Case," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-62, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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