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Are benefits from oil - stocks diversification gone? A new evidence from a dynamic copulas and high frequency data

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  • Krenar Avdulaj
  • Jozef Barunik

Abstract

Oil is widely perceived as a good diversification tool for stock markets. To fully understand the potential, we propose a new empirical methodology which combines generalized autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency data, and allows us to capture and forecast the conditional time-varying joint distribution of the oil -- stocks pair accurately. Our realized GARCH with time-varying copula yields statistically better forecasts of the dependence as well as quantiles of the distribution when compared to competing models. Using recently proposed conditional diversification benefits measure which take into account higher-order moments and nonlinear dependence, we document reducing benefits from diversification over the past ten years. Diversification benefits implied by our empirical model are moreover strongly varying over time. These findings have important implications for portfolio management.

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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1307.5981.

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Date of creation: Jul 2013
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1307.5981

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Cited by:
  1. Krenar AVDULAJ & Jozef BARUNIK, 2013. "Can We Still Benefit from International Diversification? The Case of the Czech and German Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 425-442, November.

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