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Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons

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  • Dias, Alexandra
  • Embrechts, Paul
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    Abstract

    Despite an extensive body of research, the best way to model the dependence of exchange rates remains an open question. In this paper we present a new approach which employs a flexible time-varying copula model. It allows the conditional correlation between exchange rates to be both time-varying and modeled independently from the marginal distributions. We introduce a dynamic specification for the correlation using the Fisher transformation. Applied to Euro/US dollar and Japanese Yen/US dollar, our results reveal a significantly time-varying correlation, dependent on the past return realizations. We find that a time-varying copula with the proposed correlation specification gives better results than alternative dynamic benchmark models. The dynamic copula model outperforms at six different time horizons, ranging from hourly to daily, confirming the model specification.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 8 (December)
    Pages: 1687-1705

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:8:p:1687-1705

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

    Related research

    Keywords: Foreign exchange rates Multivariate time series Copula-GARCH Conditional dependence Dynamic copula;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Pawel Janus & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2011. "Long Memory Dynamics for Multivariate Dependence under Heavy Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-175/2/DSF28, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Donald Lien & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang & Chunyang Zhou, 2013. "Dynamic and Asymmetric Dependences Between Chinese Yuan and Other Asia‐Pacific Currencies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 696-723, 08.
    3. Pawel Janus & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2011. "Long Memory Dynamics for Multivariate Dependence under Heavy Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-175/2/DSF28, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2012. "Exchange Return Co-movements and Volatility Spillovers Before and After the Introduction of Euro," FIW Working Paper series 080, FIW.
    5. Arnold Polanski & Evarist Stoja, 2013. "Co-dependence of Extreme Events in High Frequency FX Returns," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 040, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    6. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.

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