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Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?

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  • Chen, Shiu-Sheng

Abstract

This paper investigates whether a higher oil price pushes the stock market into bear territory, by using time-varying transition-probability Markov-switching models. It examines different measures of oil price shocks. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the Standard & Poor's S&P 500 price index suggests that an increase in oil prices leads to a higher probability of a bear market emerging.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 490-495

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:490-495

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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Keywords: Oil prices Stock returns;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
  2. Krenar Avdulaj & Jozef Barunik, 2013. "Are benefits from oil - stocks diversification gone? A new evidence from a dynamic copulas and high frequency data," Papers 1307.5981, arXiv.org.
  3. Mollick, André Varella & Assefa, Tibebe Abebe, 2013. "U.S. stock returns and oil prices: The tale from daily data and the 2008–2009 financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-18.
  4. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
  5. Anna Creti & Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Oil Price and Financial Markets: Multivariate Dynamic Frequency Analysis," Working Papers 2014-121, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  6. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, Su-Fang & Yu, Keming, 2011. "Crude oil shocks and stock markets: A panel threshold cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 987-994, September.
  7. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  8. Li, Su-Fang & Zhu, Hui-Ming & Yu, Keming, 2012. "Oil prices and stock market in China: A sector analysis using panel cointegration with multiple breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1951-1958.
  9. Anna Créti & Zied Ftiti & Khaleb Guesmi, 2013. "Oil price impact on financial markets: co-spectral analysis for exporting versus importing countries," Working Papers hal-00822070, HAL.
  10. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
  11. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Wavelet-based evidence of the impact of oil prices on stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 145-176.
  12. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  13. Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
  14. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
  15. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
  16. Acaravci, Ali & Ozturk, Ilhan & Kandir, Serkan Yilmaz, 2012. "Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1646-1654.

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