House price cycles in Europe
AbstractThis paper examines the house price dynamics for thirteen European countries. A Markov-switching error correction model is estimated on house price returns at the country level, with deviations between house prices and fundamentals feeding into the short-run dynamics. The system is assumed to be in either a stable regime, in which deviations from the long-run equilibrium tend to vanish over time, or in an unstable regime, in which no such correction takes place. The analysis yields three sets of results. First, house price returns in Europe are generally characterized by three (high, medium and low) phases; growth rates within regimes differ largely across countries. Second, for some European countries the observed high growth phases are associated with a stable regime. Third, European housing markets have been more in sync with each other since 2000 following a growing trend in the time-span 2002-2006 and a dramatic downturn after the Lehman collapse in 2008 and during the Euro area sovereign debt crisis. JEL Classification: G12, R11, R31
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1613.
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2013-12-06 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-12-06 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-ORE-2013-12-06 (Operations Research)
- NEP-URE-2013-12-06 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013.
"Clustered housing cycles,"
2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010.
"Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future,"
SERC Discussion Papers
0049, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
- Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
- John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: lessons for the future," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Corradin, Stefano & Fillat, Jose L. & Vergara, Carles, 2012.
"Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs,"
IESE Research Papers
D/948, IESE Business School.
- Corradin, Stefano & Fillat, José L. & Vergara-Alert, Carles, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs," Working Paper Series 1470, European Central Bank.
- Stefano Corradin & José L. Fillat & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2010. "Optimal portfolio choice with predictability in house prices and transaction costs," Risk and Policy Analysis Unit Working Paper QAU10-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0307, Banco de Espa�a.
- Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010.
"Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
- Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.