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Why was Stock Market Volatility so High During the Great Depression? Evidence from 10 Countries During the Interwar Period

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Voth, Hans-Joachim

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Abstract

The extreme levels of stock price volatility found during the Great Depression have often been attributed to political uncertainty. This Paper performs an explicit test of the Merton/Schwert hypothesis that doubts about the survival of the capitalist system were partly responsible. It does so by using a panel data set on political unrest, demonstrations and other indicators of instability in a set of 10 developed countries during the interwar period. Fear of worker militancy and a possible revolution can explain a substantial part of the increase in stock market volatility during the Great Depression.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3254.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3254

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Related research
Keywords: great depression; political uncertainty; stock price volatility; worker militancy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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References listed on IDEAS
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  4. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Wayne Wu, 1999. "The Information Content of Stock Markets: Why do Emerging Markets have Synchronous Stock Price Movements?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 44, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Schwert, G. William, 1989. "Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 83-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. William O. Brown & Richard C. K. Burdekin & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2005. "Volatility in an Era of Reduced Uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," NBER Working Papers 11319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Yunyong Thaicharoen, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 9124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Sam Hak Kan Tang & Nicolaas Groenewold & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2003. "Institutions, Technical Change and Macroeconomic Volatility, Crises and Growth: A Robust Causation," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-21, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2003. "Stock Market Volatility and Monetary Policy: What the Historical Record Shows," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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